An Assessment of Long-term Changes in Temperature under The Climate Change Scenarios for Lagos - Nigeria

Abstract

ABSTRACT
Statistical downscaling analysis has been found to be useful in studying climate at the local scale for Lagos. Annual and seasonal GCM (Global Circulation Model) ensemble prediction have been made available for the period between 1975 and 2050 using Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing techniques and meteorological data as initial input were applied to socioeconomic scenarios, namely, SRES A1B, A2 and B1 were used to assess the implications of Temperature anomaly and change in Lagos over time. Climate scenarios were used to determine the meteorological parameters needed to predict past, present and future trend of temperature using Hadley Centre’s HadCM3 model. Seasonal monthly and annual average was computed for each scenario covering the study years for a four time slices period of 1975-2000, 2020-2030, 2031-2040, and 2041-2050. A positive trend was observed in all scenarios in temperature. This was used to study climatic anomaly and change in Lagos. The Normal distribution method was used to study Climate and weather extreme. The Root Mean Square Error method was used to validate temperature data derived from the study. The impact of temperature on human comfort in the study area was also computed. The result reveals a moderate trend in temperature for baseline scenario, high for A1B scenario, high for A2 scenario and moderate for B1. The implications of changes in temperature for the projected A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios indicate the possibility of high human discomfort experienced in all seasons of the year in the study area.

Keywords: Socioeconomic scenarios, GCM, HadCM3, Temperature, Human Comfort, Lagos.

Cite this Article: Oni Feyi and Ibeabuchi Uwadiegwu. An Assessment of Long-term Changes in Temperature under The Climate Change Scenarios for Lagos – Nigeria. International Journal of Satellite Communication & Remote Sensing. 2020; 6(1): 8–20p.